In Hypothetical Race, McCain is Only Republican Winner


While we at the Yonder await the results from Florida — we'll have our rural/urban breakdowns after the vote is in — there is time to speculate about November. What's the best match-up for each party in the fall? Emory University political scientists compiled a half-dozen polls conducted in January on hypothetical general election match-ups to try to answer that question.

It's a bad year (right now) for Republicans. A generic Democrat beats a generic Republican by more than 16 percentage points. When Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton are paired against Republicans Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee or Rudy Giuliani, both Democrats win by double digits.

But, when the leading Democrats are paired against Sen. John McCain, the results change…quite a bit. McCain leads both Clinton and Obama by a very, very slight margin. On average, Romney loses to the Dems by 16 points. McCain wins by one.