Racing For '08 Bottom

Democratic Primary Turned on Southern City Vote

editor — Mon, 2 Jun 2008 16:52:35 -0700

Without his huge margins in southern cities, Sen. Barack Obama would be far behind his opponent, Sen. Hillary Clinton, in the race for the Democratic nomination for the presidency. The Illinois senator won the South's urban areas in landslides — by more than 20 percentage points — and is now all but assured of his party's nomination.

The Yonder set off last week to determine if Obama had an "Appalachian problem," the catch phrase used to describe his dismal showings in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and West Virginia. In a number of articles, analysts have asserted that the particular cultural and ethnic make up of Appalachian counties led to Obama's overwhelming defeats there.

We did, in fact, find that, in most cases, Obama fared worse in Appalachian counties than in rural counties with comparable racial make-up outside the region. Sen. Clinton won 62 percent of the vote in Appalachian counties. (We used the Appalachian Regional Commission's list.) These counties, however, produced only 11 percent of the total vote in the 31 primaries we studied.

Appalachia isn't the only region where one of the Democratic candidates scored a lopsided victory. But nobody has mentioned Sen. Clinton's "Southern city problem." Sen. Obama won the Southern cities by about the same margin that Clinton won Appalachia — and urban areas in the South delivered more than twice the number of votes as were cast in all of Appalachia.

Sen. Obama's slim popular vote lead over Clinton in this study is due entirely to his landslide margins in the urban South. Clinton won Appalachia by 750,000 votes. Obama won southern cities by almost double that number.

Obama trails Clinton in the popular vote in every region but the South, according to the Yonder's analysis. And Clinton does far better than Obama in a large group of swing counties — those communities that voted for Democrat Bill Clinton in 1996 but for George W. Bush in 2004. Meanwhile, Obama does better than Clinton in strong Democratic counties and in counties where the two parties were closely competitive in 1996 and 2004.

The Yonder analysis shows Clinton and Obama to be evenly matched candidates backed by different kinds of communities. Obama takes the cities, while Clinton wins in rural and exurban communities. Obama wins the South, but loses in the other three large regions of the country. And even though the two candidates are virtually tied in popular votes, almost half the voters in contested primaries live in communities where either Obama or Clinton won by a landslide of more than 20 percentage points.

Rural Voters Come Through for Clinton

editor — Wed, 5 Mar 2008 07:54:33 -0800

Sen. Hillary Clinton won Texas Tuesday because she built up overwhelming margins in rural communities.

In the race for the Democratic nomination, Clinton lost to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in urban Texas. Obama won the cities with 52 percent of the vote against Clinton's 47.3 percent. And since nearly three-quarters of the Texas Democratic primary vote was in the cities, Clinton needed a big win in rural and exurban communities.

And that is exactly what she got.

In rural and exurban Texas, Clinton scored landslide margins. In all the areas outside the cities, the New York senator won 60 percent of the vote. Obama failed to crack 38 percent of the vote in rural or exurban communities, according to an analysis by the Daily Yonder.

In Ohio, Clinton won rural, urban and exurban communities. But, as in Texas, she built her margins in Ohio among rural and exurban voters.

Clinton won just a smidgen more than half of the vote in urban Ohio. (Obama won about 48 percent of the city vote.) But the New York senator won nearly two-thirds of the votes coming out of rural and exurban Ohio communities.

Clinton won by 228,000 votes Tuesday in Ohio; 109,000 of those votes came from rural Ohio.

On Super Tuesday, Clinton and McCain Take the Rural Vote

editor — Fri, 8 Feb 2008 09:34:29 -0800

Across more than twenty states holding primary elections and caucuses this past Tuesday, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. John McCain won the most votes from rural Americans, according to a Daily Yonder analysis.

The vote from rural, urban and exurban communities told different stories for the two parties.

In the Democratic contest between Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama, the Illinois senator won the urban vote, but lost in rural and suburban areas. Nationally, Clinton won 55.3% of the rural vote. Obama took 38.1%.

The span between them was greatest in the South. There, Obama won 62% of the vote in metro areas while Clinton took just 35.1%.

In the rural South, however, Clinton won 58.1% of the vote to Obama's 33.2%.

The differences were more muted in the West.

For a full, state-by-state analysis — and for regional summaries — find the Republican results here . Find the Democratic results here .

Is Obama Ahead in Rural America? Not Yet

editor — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 17:44:38 -0800

Election day in Goose Creek, South Carolina
Photo: Eyasu.Solomon

How well is Sen. Barack Obama doing in rural communities?

His campaign believes the Illinois senator is doing quite well in rural America. On Monday, Obama campaign chair David Plouffe told reporters the senator had "strength in small towns and rural areas." Obama did win the rural vote in the Nevada caucuses and in the South Carolina primary, as the Yonder has reported.

Much of Obama's vote in the last two big primaries — South Carolina and Florida — has been driven by the vote of African-Americans, who have overwhelmingly supported the young senator. Obama very likely did well in rural South Carolina because the the rural population here is proportionately greater than the black population in South Carolina's cities. So, if you separate race from rural, is Obama really doing better in rural communities?

Not so far. When you begin to separate race from region, it appears that Obama pays a price in rural communities. When race is taken into account, Obama does considerably better in urban counties. Or, at least, he did better in urban South Carolina and urban Florida than in rural communities.

McCain Takes Rural New Hampshire; Clinton Wins the Cities

editor — Wed, 9 Jan 2008 08:33:38 -0800

Sen. John McCain took the Republican primary in New Hampshire Tuesday with rural votes — and Sen. Hillary Clinton won despite vote from rural communities.

Both McCain and Clinton won upset victories in the first full primary of the 2008 primary season. McCain, the Arizona senator, was out of money and out of prospects late last summer. And New York's Clinton was down by double-digit margins to Sen. Barack Obama in a range of polls released a day before the vote.