The Rural War
05/21/2007
3 comments![]() ![]() Austin,Tex. -- Which American communities pay the highest price for the war in Iraq? A look at the demographics of soldiers killed reveals that Iraq is not the war of any one race or region. Rather, it is rural America's war. Altogether, a nearly equal percentage of Americans aged 18 to 54 live in counties with a million or more inhabitants as live in counties of 100,000 or fewer. And yet, of the soldiers who have died in Iraq, 342 came from densely populated counties while 536 came from smaller ones. Derived from Pentagon and census data, this chart shows the Iraqi war death rates for every 100,000 people ages 18 to 54 by the size of their county's population.
Why should this be? It's not that Iraqi insurgents are singling out rural soldiers, or that commanders are putting them at particular risk. Rather, the armed forces themselves must be disproportionately drawn from rural communities - a fact not immediately discernible from recruitment data, which report the race, age and education of recruits, but not their home counties. This is above all an economics story. Military studies consistently find that a poor economy is a boon to recruiting. The higher rate of deaths from rural counties likely reflects sparse opportunities for young people in those places. When the Iraq war memorials go up in years to come, these monuments to heroism and sacrifice will be found less often in thriving urban centers than in lagging rural communities. First published in The New York Times, July 19, 2005
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Comments
rural deaths
bishop, i read info you ref'd (above & Carsey), which play out the geographic disparity reflected in your state-by-state chart. as your article relates, this appears to be a "multivariate" causation, socioeconomic/geographic. i wonder just how far down the disparity goes: how (comparatively) well are these rural Guard units equipped, trained, etc. ? was this implied in your article --and did i miss it?
on another tangential note, would a state's more diverse geographic (socioeconomic) participation imbue more "favorable" outcomes? is this an inference you are tendering?
rural deaths -- what we know
Bill Bishop
bill.bishop@dailyyonder.com
Nowontonnotnow is right that there are undobtedly many factors that come into play. Bob Cushing did the analysis on this. As I recall, we didn't find much difference with Guard and Reservers. (And we have no idea on their relative skills as soldiers or their equipment.)
You can find all kinds of interesting little connections. The more patents produced by an area, the lower the death rate. The higher the vote for George Bush in 2004, the higher the death rate.
We figured the Department of Defense knows best who is a likely recruit, and researchers there have found that "enlistment rates are lower among individuals with college-educated parents, high grades, and college plans..."
At root, the death rate is a measure of opportunity.
rural deaths
"At root, the death rate is a measure of opportunity." yes, a profound statement of reality.
thanks, also, for the clarifications.