Monday, September 6, 2010

Family Can Keep Young Graduates Closer to Home

01/06/2010

Pew Research Center In a 2008 survey, the Pew Research Center found that college graduates were farm more likely than those with a high school diploma to live in multiple states.

Who moves?

The answer to that question makes or breaks local economies. Places that pile up people with college degrees grow faster and have higher incomes than places with larger percentages of high school graduates. Harder to understand is why some people move and others don’t — and why some places tend to attract educated people while other places suffer from a “brain drain.” 

Rural areas have been hit hard by outmigration. So the reasons for migration are of particular interest to those living in Yonder. Rural communities, therefore, should take note of a study coming out of the Small Business Administration that traces the movements of young college graduates. 

Chad Moutray, an SBA economist, gained access to a unique Department of Education survey of 7,000 young people who were college seniors during the 1992-93 academic year. The group was interviewed again in 1994, in 1997 and in 2003, ten years after their graduation year. The study allowed researchers to see what really happened to recent graduates — where they moved, what they earned, where they worked.

Before we get to the results, this is what researchers believe they know about who moves and why.

Those with a college education move more than those with a high school diploma, 77% versus 56%. College graduates are more likely to live in many states. People in the Midwest are less likely to move than those living in other regions. Those in the West move the most. (Think Route 66.) Movers say they are looking for economic opportunity while stayers say they want to be around their friends and family. Pew Research Center Pew Research Center found that people who moved to be near family were generally less educated, poorer and more politically conservative.

These trends are more pronounced among rural residents who go to college. One study found that rural college graduates are three times more likely to move to cities than are rural residents who haven’t been to college.

Migration does have economic consequences. Cities that have collected educated kids thrive while rural areas that lose their most-likely-to-succeed fall behind.

Okay, so what did the SBA find in their interviews of 7,000 recent college graduates? Here are the high points:

• Those with the highest grades moved the most. Students who made As and Bs in their major in college were more mobile than those who made more average grades. It doesn’t appear that what a person majored in makes much difference to mobility.

• It is true that the “best and brightest” are the most likely to migrate. Students who attend top research universities — or who pay higher tuition rates — are more likely to move out of their home state. Pew Research Center Those who stayed at home to be near family were more likely to be rural.

• Having a well-educated spouse increases the chances that couple will move. It is likely that finding two jobs that for highly educated workers requires a move to a larger city.

• Movers go to places with vibrant local economies. States with higher than average increases in gross domestic income are much more likely to have recent graduates moving in. (The SBA researcher notes that it isn’t possible to know if the faster growth rates are attracting the well-educated — or if the recent college graduates are creating the fast growth.)

• Having strong ties to home keeps people from moving. Older people who are married with children and own their own homes are less likely to leave their home state. Those who want to live close to their parents, not surprisingly, are less likely to move.

• Men are more likely to move than women.

• Recent graduates move away from low-population-density states to those with more cities.

Moutray concludes that there is an interesting divide between movers and stayers. Movers appear to be looking for vibrant economies. Stayers are more interested in maintaining community connections, especially staying near family.

“The final piece of the puzzle for stemming 'brain drain' is the existence of strong ties to the community,” Moutray writes. “This, of course, is not something policymakers have much control over, but this research suggests that such ties exert powerful influence.”

Comments

"Splitters"?

As a Ph.D. student who made very good grades at the bachelor's and master's level, I can tell you that grades have little to do with why I don't live in rural West Virginia where I grew up. I moved away to go to university, then moved further away for my husband to attend graduate school, and then moved out of the country to do a Ph.D. that I hope will allow me in some way to make a contribution to the community where I grew up. I have very strong family ties. I am brokenhearted every time I leave them. But there are many, many more factors at work here than simple "choice." For one, my 18 month old son has severe asthma. The healthcare available in my family's area is frightening (My mother nearly died in the hallway of the emergency room because she was given a medication she was allergic to and then told she just needed to "calm down" when she was having a siezure. That type of oversight is not uncommon at their local hospital.). The jobs market is abysmal - especially for highly-educated people. And the chances of supporting not only my immediate family but my extended family, as well, are exponentially greater if I live in an area where I can be better compensated for my experience/expertise (i.e. not rural WV). It is hurtful that often readers of these statistics assume that people who don't return to the areas where they were raised do so because they would rather not "go back to the sticks." On the contrary, many of us feel we don't have a choice. Here's hoping we can meet halfway somewhere.

Bittersweet

I am a long-time refugee from my home state of Kentucky (now living outside Washington, D.C.) and have never quite gotten over leaving it behind. I'm a writer and am interested in talking to people who've moved back to their hometowns. People interested in being intererviewed on this topic can contact me through my blog, walkerinthesuburbs.blogspot.com.  Thanks, Anne Cassidy

Brain Drain Considerations

Colleges and medical schools tend to select those with top standardized test scores, but a consequence is fewer of the graduates staying in the state to provide health care in the state that invested in them from birth to graduation.

Children that are most urban or highest income or children of professionals including physicians are most likely to have top standardized test scores, are 2 - 10 times more likely to gain medical school admission, and are least likely to remain in states and locations in need of care. This is a group shaped by exclusive neighborhoods, private high schools, high school in exclusive suburbs, and exclusive colleges. Birth to admission uniquely shapes these students away from primary care, rural workforce, and underserved workforce and toward specialty choices in 4% of the land area in top concentrations off physicians. 

One of the reasons that states support their public medical schools so poorly is that the medical school fails to meet state workforce needs. National policies also fail. For example the accelerated family medicine residency program was replicated into a number of states and programs in two states had graduates that were 70% found in rural practices in the state that trained them for medical school and family medicine residency (and usually before). This training model was terminated despite 40% rural location rates (10% for US physicians) and despite 20% underserved location rates (7 - 8% for US physicians) and despite top delivery of primary care in the nation (30 Standard Primary Care years) and the lowest cost of primary care delivery for the cost of all education and training of any primary care source.

States that identify and support children that are bonded to family, community, and other state characteristics are in the best position to incent future workforce in medicine and a number of areas. These are typically lower and middle income children and those first generation to college. By selecting these students to become physicians, the benefits also include more primary care delivery per graduate, more rural workforce, more underserved workforce, more who care for the elderly, and physicians who are more likely to share common ground with their patients - a boost to better care and lower costs.

Before I came to Nebraska this process was set in motion and during my 15 years it continued to grow. It was set in motion by people by people who understood that it would take 40 - 50 years of effort to address needed workforce. It takes 10 years after realizing the process that is needed to get to the needed workforce production and then 35 class years of graduates or a generation of physicians to get to the design level. Nebraska was well on its way until state and federal policies sent workforce other directions, including out of state.  Not surprisingly Nebraska has joined the 25 - 30 states that will have insufficient workforce as graduates that once remained 50% instate now have 30% instate retention. In the urban origin UNMC students in 2009, only 3% chose family medicine in a state with about half of the population dependent upon family medicine.

Robert C. Bowman, M.D.   North American Regional Co-Editor of Rural and Remote Health
www.basichealthaccess.org