Saturday, February 4, 2012

Are There Jobs? It Depends

09/07/2010

Roberto Gallardo/BLS The unemployment rates in rural counties varied from region to region. Purple counties have rates above the national average of 9.75%. Green counties have unemployment rates below the national average. Click on the map to see a larger version.

Six out of ten rural counties had unemployment rates lower than the national average in July, according to data released late last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And unemployment in rural America was lower than the national average for the third straight month.

Nationally, the unemployment rate stood at 9.75% in July, according to the BLS’s county-by-county listing of jobs and job-seekers. The rural rate of unemployment in July was 9.5%. The unemployment rate in exurban counties — counties near metro areas — was 9.1%.

To download an Excel file with July employment figures for all counties, click here. July is the latest month for this data.

Hardly any part of rural America is "average," however. The rates swing wildly from region to region, ranging from 24% in one Michigan county to one percent in communities in Alaska and the Dakotas.

The map above shows all rural counties. Purple counties have unemployment rates above the national average of 9.75%. (To see a larger version of the map, click on it.)

The highest unemployment rates are the dark purple counties — with the highest unemployment found in Baraga County, in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

The green counties have unemployment rates lower than the national average. The dark green counties have the best job picture. The lowest unemployment rates among the Lower 48 states can be found in North and South Dakota. (To see the fifty rural counties with the highest and lowest unemployment rates in July, scroll down.)

The unemployment picture in rural America continues along familiar lines. The Great Plains states are doing well. So are Vermont, New Hampshire and the Mountain West.

The Southeast, Appalachia, Michigan, Nevada and the Pacific Coast continue to show high unemployment. This has been the pattern since the recession began in late 2007.

Only 405 out of 2,038 rural counties — fewer than one in five — are within one percentage point of the national average unemployment rate. In this economy, "average" doesn’t mean much. Location tells more about an economy than anything else. Alabama and the rest of the Southeast can’t shake high unemployment rates while North Dakota searches for workers.

States that had a large portion of their workers employed in construction and manufacturing — such as Michigan, Nevada, California and Florida — have been hit worst. Farm states and counties with significant oil and gas production have low unemployment rates.

In Michigan, there are 8.24 unemployed workers for each job posted online, according to a recent study by Juju.com, a job search site. In Nebraska and North Dakota, there are fewer than two unemployed people for each job opening. 

This imbalance is exacerbated by the balky housing market. Simply, people are unable to move  where the jobs are because they can’t sell their houses. 

“Four years ago, you might have been working in construction in Nevada and overpaid for your house,” writes Annie Lowrey in the Washington Independent. “Today, you’re likely out of a job and, worse, can’t move to a state like North Dakota because you can’t sell the property.” 

“The lack of mobility contributes to large disparities among state unemployment rates,” Jon Hilsenrath writes in the Wall Street Journal. “In North Dakota, unemployment is 3.6%. In Nevada, it is more than 10 percentage points higher. Before the recession, by contrast, the gap between the states with the highest and lowest unemployment rates was 4.4 percentage points.”

The question is whether the rest of America will come to look more like the Dakotas — or whether the job-rich Plains states will begin to resemble Mississippi and Florida.

Ernest Goss’s Mainstreet Economy Index regularly polls bankers across rural communities in 10 Plains and Midwest states. In his latest report, released August 19th, Goss finds his index slipping. “Much like the nation, bank CEOs are tracking significant pullbacks in economic activity,” Goss reported.

Four in ten bankers said they expected the nation to slip back into recession in 2011. 

The states in the Index — Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North and South Dakota and Wyoming — have lost 3.5% of their jobs in the last year, according to Goss, even though these states have some of the strongest economies in the nation. 

The new home sales in these rural communities also declined for the second straight month. 

Below are the 50 rural counties with the lowest unemployment rates.

These are the 50 rural counties with the highest unemployment rates.

Roberto Gallardo is a research associate at the Southern Rural Development Center at Mississippi State University.

Comments

charts mislabeled?

hithere--I have re-read this a couple of times but it appears that the columns labeled "Employed" and "Unemployed" are reversed....as are the preceding labels for highest and lowest. Both charts would seem to suggest that unemployment is between 76-99%.

right you are

Thanks, Nancy. Now fixing....

PLEASE - include Alaska in your maps!

Please include Alaska in your maps! Alaska is mainly rural, and counts BOTH high and and low in unemployment in your tables AND TOP on federal stimulus spending. YET, we don't even see Alaska on your maps :-( Because the 4th to highest in unemployment rates from your table is Wade Hampton Census Area a census area located Alaska, part of an unorganized borough, many of us here in Alaska don't even know where Wade Hampton is located. Took me some time internet searching to find that Wade Hampton is the census area which includes Hooper Bay. Please include Alaska in your maps! Don't make us work harder than others to "get the picture!" Alask is RURAL Don't erase us OR keep us out of sight out of mind!

you're right

We apologize to all Alaskans. Let us explain.

First, we are beginner map makers. We need to figure out how to get Alaska and Hawaii in the picture. Part of our problem is technical.

Second, we wish Alaska had counties. We have a hard time relating the census areas used in Alaska to anything else. 

Still, this is all our fault. We include Alaska data in charts and Excel files. We just have a hard time with maps. We will improve.

Thanks for kicking our behinds! We deserve it.

"Best jobs picture" ignores long-term unemployed

This is really great data, I'm glad you guys pulled this together.

 

One caution - the "what recession" counties may be hiding very large populations of long-term unemployed people. These folks are not included in the BLS number and we know that folks in rural communities may not be looking anymore because there simply are not any jobs to apply for.

 

We have also had detailed conversations with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and have concluded they essentially exclude data on Indian reservations. This means for states (like South Dakota) with high Native populations, the unemployment rate is likely considerably understated.

 

Therefore, the low unemployment rate counties are not necessarily counties where the jobs picture is "best." More likely, they include communities where the jobs picture has been terrible for decades.